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Tom Wojcik’s September 26 report describes how the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is affecting oil shipping and fuel markets, while raising concerns about fertiliser supplies, harvests and winter heating. The report also details uneven effects in Europe, including fuel shortages at some French stations and a poor potato harvest forecast. Several figures and projections are attributed to outside organizations; the full extent and duration of the disruption remain uncertain.
Polish writer Tom Wojcik says the continuing closure of the Strait of Hormuz is feeding into fuel prices, fertiliser availability and Europe’s winter energy outlook, linking a Gulf conflict to household and agricultural pressures. His report, based on figures through September 26, 2026, describes effects already visible in oil markets and some fuel stations, alongside food and heating risks that remain forecasts.
Wojcik reports that US and Israeli military operations against Iran began in late February and that Iran has kept Hormuz closed since March using drones, missiles, mines and small boats. Tanker traffic through the strait has fallen by more than 90 percent, according to the report, which cites the International Energy Agency’s description of the disruption as the largest the oil market has experienced. Brent crude briefly reached $108 a barrel on September 24, after rising from near $97 early in the month.
The report says an early-summer ceasefire briefly brought prices back to pre-war levels before breaking down. On September 22, Iran presented Washington with a written proposal for a regional ceasefire of up to 60 days, a phased reopening of the strait and an end to the US naval blockade. Washington rejected the proposal, Wojcik writes. He also points to tanker shipping: the Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF was up more than 2,300 percent for the year by early September, though the fund’s manager said rates could fall if Hormuz reopens.
Wojcik describes uneven effects beyond the Gulf. On September 20, 15 percent of French fuel stations were reported out of petrol or diesel, up from 11 percent two days earlier; the French government ruled out a national shortage. The report says about nine in ten affected stations belonged to TotalEnergies, whose €1.99-per-litre petrol cap drew drivers as prices rose elsewhere. In agriculture, a growers’ organization forecast a potato harvest down 25 percent in parts of Europe after reduced planting, heatwaves and drought. These are reported figures and forecasts, not evidence that all regions face the same shortages.
How the Closure Reaches Households
The closure matters because Hormuz is a route for energy and fertiliser shipments, and disruption can compound across sectors. Higher oil costs can raise transport and heating expenses; constrained fertiliser supply can affect later harvests. Wojcik cites the UN Food and Agriculture Organization’s warning that fertiliser scarcity could reduce yields and tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027. That is a projected risk, with the scale depending on how long supply disruption lasts and how markets adapt.
The report also connects fuel supply to household vulnerability. France’s station data shows that a price measure intended to cushion drivers can contribute to local queues and empty tanks when supply cannot keep pace with demand. In Poland, where Wojcik says homes rely on coal and imported gas, the energy shock raises concerns about winter costs. The report’s broader point is that limited reserves and dependence on distant suppliers can leave countries exposed when several supply routes are disrupted at once.
From Gulf Conflict to European Costs
Wojcik frames the crisis from Poland, which borders Ukraine and depends on coal and imported gas for heating, according to his account. He argues that countries have exchanged stockpiles and other buffers for cheaper supply chains and external guarantees. That is his interpretation of the vulnerabilities exposed by this year’s events; the report’s underlying figures describe specific disruptions rather than proving that every country made the same choices.
The piece also situates the Gulf shock alongside Russia’s war against Ukraine. It says Ukrainian drones have struck Russian refineries at least 70 times this year, citing the IEA, and that Russia’s refining output has fallen to a two-decade low. The report says half of Russia’s six largest diesel plants cut or halted output in September and Moscow restricted fuel exports. Those pressures add to a market already affected by the Hormuz closure.
Food insecurity was already severe before the latest supply shock. Wojcik cites the 2025 Global Report on Food Crises as recording two confirmed famines, in Gaza and Sudan, for the first time in that report’s history. He also cites an estimated 59 percent fall in food-assistance funding between 2022 and 2025. The World Food Programme estimate he quotes—that sustained high oil prices could push up to 45 million more people into acute food insecurity—is a conditional projection.
“Sustained high oil prices could push up to 45 million more people into acute food insecurity.”
— World Food Programme, as cited by Tom Wojcik
Duration and Scale of Supply Risks
The report does not establish when the Strait of Hormuz might reopen or whether diplomatic efforts will resume. It says Washington rejected Iran’s September 22 proposal; a separate report cited by Wojcik said the US president expected bombing to resume after November’s midterm elections. That expectation is attributed reporting, not confirmation that military operations will restart on that timetable.
The future effects on food supplies are also uncertain. The FAO warning concerns risks extending into 2027, while the World Food Programme figure is conditional on sustained high oil prices. The report does not give a final harvest tally for the affected potato-growing regions or quantify how much fertiliser supply has been lost. Nor does the French station count establish how long local fuel gaps lasted.
Signals to Watch Through Winter
The next indicators are whether Hormuz tanker traffic resumes, whether ceasefire negotiations produce a new agreement and how Brent prices respond. Changes in shipping rates may offer another measure of market expectations, though the report notes that tanker-fund values could drop if the strait reopens.
For food and household costs, upcoming harvest results and fertiliser deliveries will help show whether the supply risks translate into lower yields and higher prices. European governments’ fuel and heating measures will also matter as winter approaches. Wojcik’s report provides a snapshot through September 26; it does not establish how those developments will resolve.
Key Questions
What is the main development in the report?
Tom Wojcik reports that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, disrupting tanker traffic and putting pressure on oil markets, with possible consequences for fertiliser, food and European energy costs.
Is France running out of fuel?
The report says 15 percent of French stations were out of petrol or diesel on September 20, while the government ruled out a national shortage. Many affected stations were TotalEnergies locations experiencing demand under a price cap, according to Wojcik.
What does the report say about food supplies?
It cites the FAO warning that fertiliser scarcity could reduce yields and tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027. It also reports a forecast of a 25 percent decline in the potato harvest in parts of Europe. These are warnings and forecasts, not final harvest results.
What remains unknown?
The report does not say when Hormuz will reopen, how long high oil prices may persist or how much the disruption will affect final harvests and winter heating costs. Those outcomes depend on developments still unfolding.
Source: hn
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